Currently Projected Political Shifts: (Net gains for R’s)
+7 US Senate
+32 US House
+6-7 US Governorships
This is based on a RCP generic ballot poll average showing R’s currently up +5.2. Sabato’s table summarizes the outcome look:
Predicted Results of 2010 Gubernatorial Elections based on Early September Generic Ballot
Using this table, under most reasonable circumstances, even those favorable November conditions for D’s, there will be a net shift towards R’s. This number has two and a half months to move, which can be years in politics.
Sabato’s full article is rich with detailed and historical analysis.
Jared’s general predictions: I see Republican pickups on the high side of the range. I think +5 generic ballot could increase as I see economic conditions worsening, not improving from here to November. Unless Obama uses more debt to forestall the inevitable pain, more Americans will be worse off in a few months. If more debt is used, there is a risk of backlash against D’s for using too much debt spending. R’s are very mobilized and angry equaling a higher likelihood of more R’s turning out to vote than D’s. This is important because the it enhances the effect of the generic ballot. We still have a ways to go before November. While the economic conditions are substantially negative for D’s, this particular election is bad for all incumbents, as those in power are seen as creating the problem. It’ll be interesting to see if the Tea Party movement ends up fracturing the R party in a some what similar manner to Ross Perot’s presidential bid. At this stage, I see the talk of it, but in the end R’s are angry and will vote. They may not want to vote for the incumbant R, but they’ll take that over not voting at all, or voting for a D. Counterbalancing that, D’s are not heading into this threat unprepared or caught off guard. They have seen this coming and have fundraised more money this year than the entire last election cycle! (source)
Postscript: It’s always useful to write down predictions as you’re going along. Looking back later, it’s useful to evaluate where one was right and where one was wrong. Unless it’s written, it’s fairly susceptible to a revisionist memory. That is the purpose of this blog: a timestamped political analysis journal.
AT&T: “NO.”
Me: “Surly you jest.”
First, an AT&T store rep said no. Then her manager said no. Then the AT&T 611 customer service rep said no and her manager said no. Apple said no, too.
My mom taught me many things and tops on that list: persistence. You get what you want simply because you hold on when everyone else gives up.
My initial request: $32.49. Reasonable, fair, and rejected.
I was finally given: $264.49
The Background: I wanted not to pay a $32.49 restocking fee for returning my iPhone 4. Figured it didn’t make sense to pay 100% for a product that turns out to be defective, and then only get 90% back when I returned it. But everyone said no.
The Result: Today, Apple mailed me a wireless bluetooth headset valued at $80 for the pain in the butt factor experience, and then AT&T paid me $152 for the pain in the butt factor for trying to get my $32.49 restocking fee back, and gave me the $32.49 back.
I tried being patient and reasonable but that didn’t work. Instead of caving and trying to forget about it, I stayed with it and got more than I wanted.
If you’re struggling with AT&T, I recommend trying to talk directly to a manager at the store, and at a call center. I’ve used both before and it’s resolved the issue. If you exhausted reasonable measures, send an email to: rs2982@att.com, the email for the President of AT&T. Within 24 hours you’ll receive a call from his executive response team to solve the problem. Explain what you want reasonably and calmly; it works better than crazy and flaming mad. I also recommend asking what else they will give you for all the inconvenience you went through (that was how I went from just $32.50 to $184.50).
Below is the email I sent. It doesn’t need to be this thorough. I took the time (while sitting on hold) to highlight the details and silliness of their response.
—– Forwarded Message —-
From: Jared Fielding To: rs2982@att.com; steve@apple.comCc: bg@boygeniusreport.comSent: Fri, July 16, 2010 6:31:25 PM
Subject: Experience with iPhone return
I am having the iphone 4 reception issue. I attempted to return the iphone 4 to the att store today. Here’s how it went from the customer side.
The manager at the Kennewick, WA store “Aaron Laredo” (al257u@att.com) stated that he would not refund the $30 restocking fee. I indicated that the product was defective. Why would I be charged a restocking fee for a defective product? Not only did Steve Jobs say “no restocking fee,” I spent $2100+ in 2009 on my AT&T wireless bill for my cellphone. Aaron Laredo was unwilling to budge: $30 was out of the question.
I stayed in the store and called 611. I spoke with customer service and eventually a manager there (Cindy, #CR9603), who also indicated they would not return the $30 restocking fee. Again, I highlight the silliness of being charged to return a defective product.
Getting to this point took over an hour.
Still in the store, I am transferred to Apple, who I am told is my last hope of waiving the restocking fee. “Steven” at Apple states that since it is their defective product, they will handle the refund. I’m told I need to switch the service back to my old iPhone and go home, use my computer to start the return online, and a box will be sent to me to return the iPhone 4. I ask the Apple rep 3 times to please just start the return with him to end this miserable experience. He indicates company policy prevents him from doing so.
I switch the service, return home, and start with the online return. After 20 minutes of trying to figure out how to return it online (mind you, I used to program computers and own a computer business), I call Apple. I’m told that the only way to return the iPhone 4 is to go to ATT. I ask for a manager who says the same thing. I request the manager’s ID number for a reference. The phone call hangs up. That call took 35 minutes. At no point did I flame, swear, or do anything detogatory to any rep. You can replay the taped phone calls.
I am persistent. I call back. The new Apple rep indicates that there are no notes on the account from the last call from the rep or manager (amazing.) I ask to speak directly to a manager (as this is the 3rd time I’ve called Apple in an hour). He confirms everything I described above. Manager (Robby Kinch) appologizes, is very empathetic, and given that I was told bad advice and hung up on, he offers to give me new headphones. I appreciate the gesture (and accept). This call time: 45 minutes.
I return the defective iPhone 4. After doing everything I can think of, I am charged a restocking fee by AT&T for a product that doesn’t work. I’m still mystified.
Jared Fielding
Most Recommended Books on Money:
The Top Ten Distinctions between Millionaires and the Middle Class. Keith Camerson Smith. This book does a better job of condensing the distinctions of the lives of millionaires than any book I’ve read. A 40 minute read.
The Millionaire Next Door. Thomas Stanley. The financial classic that discusses how 95% of real millionaires actually live. Hint: The rich don’t get rich by spending most of their money acting rich.
The Four Hour Work Week Revised. Timothy Ferris. The classic on lifestyle design, it’s a fun that is a must for those looking to design their own lives instead of live as a salary slave.
Your Money or Your Life. Joe Domingez. One of the cornerstone books on personal finance, this approaches money from a unique, more honest angle than any other I’ve read.
The E-Myth Revisited. Michael Gerber. The goal isn’t to be an employee of your own business, the goal is to own the business and have it make money without your presence. An awesome roadmap.
Stop Acting Rich and Start Living Like a Real Millionaire. Thomas Stanley. In a sequel to TMND, this is readable albiet repetitive, drilling home the mantra that people who appear rich usually aren’t.
The Color Code. Taylor Hartman. This book has helped me understand people, their motivations, how to communicate, and how to predict people’s actions better than any other I’ve read.
The 5 Love Languages. Gary Chapman. A classic that teaches you some of the best ways to build up an emotional bank account with someone: give to them in the way they want to be loved.
Conscious Loving. Gay and Kathryn Hendricks.
The Proper Care and Feeding of Husbands. Dr Laura. Highly Recommend. Not PC at all but it highly correlates with the happiest marriages I’ve observed.
Favorite & General Recommended Books:
Ender’s Game. Olson Scott Card.
Atlas Shrugged & The Fountain Head. Ayn Rynd.
The Four Hour Body. Tim Ferriss. Recommend. Very interesting book about self-experimenting to improve your strength, lower your weight, increase sex, etc.
The Big Short. Michael Lewis. Recommend. Insider look at the 2008 economic melt-down written by one of the best author’s of our day.
The Science of Fear. Daniel Gardner. Highly recommend. One of my favorite 2010 book, this discusses how from Bush to non-profits fear is used. A fascinating inside look into how ideas are “sold” and the consequences of making decisions based out of fear.
Sh*t my Dad Says. (Justin Halpern). Highly recommend. The funniest, most vulgar book I’ve read in a long time.
Vagabonding. Rolf Potts. Highly recommend. The classic on long-term (months-2yrs) lightweight world travel. As much a life philosophy as a travel manual
ATT announced today that as of June 7th, there will no longer be unlimited data plans offered for iPhones. Though this will probably not be an issue for most people. I use my iPhone heavily yet ATT shows my usage is substantially below the 2,000 MB limit for the slighly cheaper $25/month plan yet quite a ways above the 200MB limit for the $15/month plan (most probably beneficial for Blackberry users). Tethering will finally be (legally) available for the new plans – and without jailbreaking for additional fundage. The complete write up here.
AT&T says 98 percent of its smartphone users–including iPhone users–use less than 2GB a month. For many iPhone users, saving $5 a month by not paying for data they don’t use is a good thing. Current users are grandfathered.
Here’s how to find out what you use:
- Hit up att.com and log into your online account
- Click on My Accounts and select Bill & Payments
- Click Billing Reports and select Data Trends
- Hit Submit
Cnet’s article is also informative.
I recently analyzed the rate of return on social security. Now for most people, this isn’t really interesting. But as a business person interested in numbers and investing, I care how much of my money is being paid in, and how much of it I’m getting back, and at what rate of return (particularly if it’s a negative rate of return).
The formula for benefits used to be very opaque. Nowaday, if you’re good at math and patient, you can calculate your expected benefits at home. The formula makes inflation adjustments and takes the 35 highest wage earning years and averages them to determine your “average annual wages.” Then the government creates three “wage zones” with differing benefits levels. For “average annual wages” from $0 to $9,132 social security will payout benefits equal to 90% of that per year. Above that, from $9,133 to $55,033, benefits drop to 33%, and from $55,034 to $106,000, the benefit drops to 15%. This means that the more you pay in, the worse (by far) your benfits becomes. Above $106,000 there is no required pay-in to social security. (The raw formula is available at here or more clearly here.)
Here’s the graph that shows exactly what this means for you and how much you pay in:
Note the points where the graph bends is where you see a different “wage zone” start/end.
There’s lots of ways to look at the money paid into social security. I don’t like to think of it as giving the government money and hoping they take care of me. Instead, I prefer to think of it as a forced government retirement plan which, after that money is paid in, has a rate of return. I calculate this ROI the way a bank does with an amortized loan. A bank loans me money and I pay principal plus some interest rate. That’s how these investments work.
My Rate of Return
If you click into this graph (I can’t get the silly thing to display any better inside this blog), note the highlighted column. This is the rate of return I receive on my social security pay-ins!
Note that for the first 9k, it’s ok (4.8%), after that, it’s actually highly negative (-13.7%), and not shown is above 55k (remember the other bend point?), the rate of return is substantially worse: -25.5%.
Can this ROI number be different? Definately. For example, this ROI assumes you are a 31 yr old male (me) who lives to an average life expectancy of 76 years old (actuary tables). However, since I have my grandparents genetics, which are ridiculous for longevity, I may well live much longer. The effect of this is a better rate of return. Which makes sense. After I hit the retirement age, the amount paid in is fixed. However, my pay-out amounts depend on how long I live. If I die early, I get screwed, if I live longer, I get more checks from the government, increasing my ROI! Which leads to…
Rate of Return by Expected “Live to” Age
The ROI on wages less than $9,132 is pretty good, particularly as you age. But one has to live until almost 90 before any money paid in on the second wage zone even has a rate of return above zero. For wages paid in the last zone (above $55,033), your return is so negative that you will not see a zero ROI until you’re very old (115 years old).
The Short in Six Sentences
Social Security is a government required retirement plan. Benefit payouts are calculated using three wage zones with three different benefits rates. Calculating the rate of return on your investment (the money paid into social security) depends on how long you live and which wage zone you’re in. The formula provides that: The less you pay in, the better the ROI; the longer you live, the better the ROI. For the wage zones where most people fall, the rate of return is negative, or substantially negative.
Postscript: I am not writing this to thrash social security. My intention is to look at the formula and analyze the numbers objectively and see if there are ways to optimize for my retirement.
Postscript #2: Later, I will add a few more article exploring how if you and your spouse run a business together, the way to increase your Social Security ROI (based on a wrinkle in the payout formula not discussed yet), at what age do you “break-even” (get all your principal back with no interest) , and other details related to this retirement plan.
How come people who make more money seem to get rich so MUCH FASTER and the poor just seem to stay poor or worse?
An excerpt from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_condensation: “Cost of living is typically the same for everyone. In a free market economy, factors contributing to the cost of living will adjust so that poorest members of the society are forced to spend all their income on bare necessities (food, housing, medicine), whereas richer members will have enough excess income that they can save and invest. Thus, in a free-market capitalist economy, both savings and the investment income …are disproportionally accumulated in hands of wealthiest individuals.”
Looking at real life: If you compare three people’s income (100k, 60k, 30k) you’ll find that their expenses are not proportionately different. If you earn 100k in income, you might spend 60k in expenses, if you earn 60k, you might spend 50k in expenses, and at 30k, you might spend 29k. Why this is so important is that the first person saves 40k a year, the second person 10k, and the third 1k. This is enormously different. At 100k vs 60k, one is earning just 1.66 times more income, but they’re have 4 times more income left over at the end of a year – they’re accumulating wealth at 4 times, not 1.66 times. And compare 60k to 30k and the difference is even more staggering: earning 2x more money but having 30x more left over at the end of a year. That is one of the single greatest arguements for the importance of increasing ones income: if you don’t, your expenses will eat all your income. Of course, no matter what income you earn, you can still manage to spend it all. But using this example, a 100k earner saves more in 5 years than a 60k earner in 20 years. Add to that fact opportunities to invest and compounded interest in real estate, stocks, or a business.
So the answer: the disparity isn’t income. The disparity is money left over after life expenses.
How do you accumulate wealth twice as fast?
While saving money is highly useful, it’s hard to trim 10k off your expenses.
The next step: If you’re that 60k/yr earner, and if you got a part-time job that made you another $800 a month over the next year (9.6k), while that’s only a small increase in income, that’s the equivalent accumulating an entire extra year worth of savings (9.6k in addition to the 10k left over at the end of a year).
In parting: If you feel yourself putting up resistence to the idea, do a cost benefit analysis. Is making that extra 9.6k of money harder than working nearly a full year of your life? And, who said you had to work harder? People who accumulate money have the same number of hours in the day as everyone else. In fact, it’s quite likely they work less. They are more creative and effective and frequently choose ways to make money that don’t correlate to how much time they must spend.
1. Get a smart phone (My fav – iPhone 3GS, $99). Try to get a person to give up their smartphone. It’s like asking someone to go back to riding the bus to get around. The iPhone has full internet, helpful apps, email, texting, 3MP pictures… you can listen to music, watch movies, shoot live streaming video. Customer satisfaction for iPhone’s is the highest of any smart phone. It’s impressive even if it’s hampered by ATT.
2. Get a Kindle, $259. The best advertisements are kindle owners – ask them about it and they turn into a long, animated advertisement. I understand people who say they’re “old school.” But if using the product for 5 minutes converted my very old school father, it’ll knock you over, too. It saves money, too — books are MUCH cheaper and can be bought virutally anywhere (lying in bed, reading on the water, at a restaurant, etc). You can always return it if not convinced.
3. Get a personal cook, $12-15. If you have an undying love for cooking, skip this one. Otherwise, consider how much time you spend going to the groccery store, buying ingredients, cooking, and then cleaning. And spoilage. And eating out. At the end of a day, would you rather do all that, or spend time doing anything else? Estimated cost of homemade meals delivered to home, $12-15 that feeds 2-3. Even having meals 2-3 days a week can make a big difference in stress levels and free time. If you’re interested, IM me for suggestions on hiring (I have this down pat).
4. Weigh yourself daily, $0. Write it down on a chart taped to the wall above your scale. This won’t by itself make you skinny, but being consistently conscious of your weight is much easier than waking up 25 lbs fatter 2 years later. This is freedom from buying bigger clothes, feeling crappy, and as you age, a ton of health related problems. I’m not saying go for skinny, but I am saying avoiding fat would be cool.
5. Delegate a job, $10. Make it one you really hate. A repetitive one. Cleaning, laundry, shopping, basic errands, picking up poop, whatever? What you really want can generally be delegated to someone competent for $9-$12/hr. I like Craigslist for job postings.
6. Get voicemail transcription, $10-30. If you use your cell phone for your work phone, this is a must! Of the last 900 voicemails I’ve gotten, I avoided listening to all but 60 of them. Highly accurate computer technology converts your voice messages to emails you can read (the voice message is attached). I’ve tested all the services and like phonetag.com the best.
7. Get MyWi. $10. It’s a hacked iphone app that allows you to make your iPhone a wireless spot. Be anywhere – car, boat, library – turn on this app, and your laptop can connect to the iphone (wirelessly) and use the internet just like at home. Super handy! See iphone.jaredfielding.com for more apps I like.
8. Viper Remote Car Starter (w/iPhone app), $500 installed: This isn’t cheap, but if you live in places where it gets to 25 below freezing, being able to warm your car from inside your work building, or inside the mall or movie theater makes winter (and super hot summers) more more enjoyable.
SMS Emailing:
ATT Wireless #@txt.att.net
Verizon #@vtext.com
Sprint PCS #@messaging.sprintpcs.com
T-Mobile #@tmomail.net
US Cellular #@email.uscc.net
Cricket #@sms.mycricket.com
Qwest #@qwestmp.com
#- 10-digit number
MMS Emailing:
AT&T/Cingular #@mms.att.com
Verizon #@vzwpix.com
Sprint/Nextel #@messaging.sprintpcs.com, #@pm.sprint.com
T-Mobile #@tmomail.net
Alltel #@message.alltel.com
US Cellular: #@mms.uscc.net
Virgin #@vmobl.net
Cricket #@mms.mycricket.com
Boost Mobile #@myboostmobile.com
Amp’d Mobile #@vzwpix.com
509 Pre-fix Identification: http://www.prefixdb.com/509
Tri-Cities:
205 Tmobile/Sprint (0xxx-6xxx Tmobile, 7xxx-9xxx Sprint)
222 Verizon
302 Sprint
308 Sprint
366 US Cellular
374 378 392 Verizon/Mix
396 Mixed
416 Mixed
420 ATT/Others
430 ATT
438 Sprint
492 Mix
521 ATT
528 ATT
531 ATT
539 ATT
542, 543, 544, 546 – Qwest
554 ATT/Others
567 Qwest
591 Mixed
727 Nextel
845 ATT
851 Sprint/Mix
947 US Cellular
948 US Cellular
987 Mix
* Note that subscribers can transfer their number between carriers so this prefix map is useful probably 95% of the time, but not infaliable.
Landlines:
Franklin County is Qwest
542, 543, 544, 545, 546, 547
Benton County is Verizon:
371, 372, 373, 374, 375, 376, 627, 628 734, 735, 736, 737 783, 942, 943, 946, 967
The Long:
Texting costs up to $.10 a message to send and $.10 to receive. Overage can be really expensive. Instead of paying $20 for unlimited texting with the iPhone, this is an option:
Open your iPhone’s mailbox and send an email to: YourPhoneNumberWithAreaCode@txt.att.net
Type in a subject, if you want, and a brief message.
After you hit send, you’ll receive the text message you sent. The only difference is, instead of identifying you, the “sender” will be something like: 1(010)100-020
You can reply directly to the text message, and it will send the reply straight to your email box. Voalia. Sending and receiving texts for free.
Sending free MMS, use: PhoneNumberWithAreaCode@mms.att.net.
To avoid having to type in the email address each time to send a text, simply add the email address to a contact, like you would any other email address. I like adding a custom label, named “Free TXT” or “Free MMS” to make it even easier to identify.
Feel free to email with questions.
UPDATE:
After receiving your first text message in your email box, if you reply to that message, the entire contents (including the first message and reply and new message), are all included in the new text. To avoid this, simply tap on the person’s name on the top and select their “Free TXT” email. This will send a blank message. If you’re confused, experiment by sending a few messages to yourself. You’ll understand the reason for not replying with a 2 page email.
Summary: You can use an app called Installous to download/install nearly any iTunes app that you would normally pay for.
Some hackers figured cracked Apple’s DRM copyright protection almost right after the iPhone 3g came out. What that meant was, if you had a jailbroken phone, and were fairly tech savvy, you could download lots of cracked apps from the web and, with a little work, install them on your phone.
While this was a fun technical challenge for like a day, the bottom line is that most apps I like are free or cost $.99. Hardly worth exerting the effort for a dollar.
However, recently the site hackulo.us recently made an app that makes this process so simple a child could do it. This is useful not to steal apps, but to preview them, since iTunes have have a return policy or trial period. If you don’t like the new app, delete it. If you do, buy it. Think of it this way, with all the money you’re saving not buying worthless apps you realized were worthless in less than 5 minutes, those savings basically gets you the good apps for free.
More information: http://hackulo.us/forums/index.php?showtopic=651
Ranked in my personal order of utility.
- MCleaner/iBlacklist: Filter calls or text messages (white and blacklists). MCleaner is the better of the two.
- Winterboard: Customize your iPhone with custom ringtones, wallpapers, sliders, etc
- Tap To Unlock Slider & Transparent Slider: Replaces traditional slider with a tap button
- StatusNotifier: Shows email, text message, and voice mail alerts from lock screen
- SBSettings: Swipe titlebar for instant access to settings
- BossPrefs: Additional customization, including numeric battery
- Custom ringtones (sooo many available for free)
- iBlank: Blank spaces to put apps exactly where you want
- MIM: Personalize your carrier
- Backgrounder: runs apps in the background (useful with Pandora and IM’ing)
- iMobileCinema: Safari plugin to view imbedded videos
- Qik: share live/streaming video with sound
- Categories: Sort apps into folders
- Pre-2.1 3G/GPRS/EDGE logos
- NES: Original Nintendo emulator
- OpenSSH: Connect to your iPhone via winipcfg
- VoIPover3G (VOIP over 3g): Tricks iPhone into seeing the 3g connection as a wifi connection — I haven’t had luck with this app.
Jared Fielding 