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Current Projections as of 8/15/2010, Focus on Governorships

August 15, 2010

Currently Projected Political Shifts: (Net gains for R’s)
+7 US Senate
+32 US House
+6-7 US Governorships

This is based on a RCP generic ballot poll average showing R’s currently up +5.2. Sabato’s table summarizes the outcome look:

Predicted Results of 2010 Gubernatorial Elections based on Early September Generic Ballot

Using this table, under most reasonable circumstances, even those favorable November conditions for D’s, there will be a net shift towards R’s. This number has two and a half months to move, which can be years in politics.

Sabato’s full article is rich with detailed and historical analysis.

Jared’s general predictions: I see Republican pickups on the high side of the range. I think +5 generic ballot could increase as I see economic conditions worsening, not improving from here to November. Unless Obama uses more debt to forestall the inevitable pain, more Americans will be worse off in a few months. If more debt is used, there is a risk of backlash against D’s for using too much debt spending. R’s are very mobilized and angry equaling a higher likelihood of more R’s turning out to vote than D’s. This is important because the it enhances the effect of the generic ballot. We still have a ways to go before November. While the economic conditions are substantially negative for D’s, this particular election is bad for all incumbents, as those in power are seen as creating the problem. It’ll be interesting to see if the Tea Party movement ends up fracturing the R party in a some what similar manner to Ross Perot’s presidential bid. At this stage, I see the talk of it, but in the end R’s are angry and will vote. They may not want to vote for the incumbant R, but they’ll take that over not voting at all, or voting for a D. Counterbalancing that, D’s are not heading into this threat unprepared or caught off guard. They have seen this coming and have fundraised more money this year than the entire last election cycle! (source)

Postscript: It’s always useful to write down predictions as you’re going along. Looking back later, it’s useful to evaluate where one was right and where one was wrong. Unless it’s written, it’s fairly susceptible to a revisionist memory. That is the purpose of this blog: a timestamped political analysis journal.

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