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60 Days to Go: A short update

September 3, 2010

The numbers for Democrats seem to be getting worse as time goes one. This is inline with my predictions at the beginning of this blog. Of course that doesn’t mean much since the election isn’t today.

If it was, however, it would be a bath.

The Gallup poll showing R’s leading D’s by +10 pts in the generic polling is the largest in Gallup’s polling history.

The Crystal Ball went on record to say that the R’s will pick up the House as almost a given, and the balance of the Senate is only slightly leaning D at this point. They have a 98% prediction track record over the last 10+ years.

Presently, the ElectionPrediction.com is calling for a equally large +9 Senate pickup (a smaller House pick-up, but still a R majority).

I prefer RealClearPolitics average which is a much more accurate picture than any single poll in my experience. This shows a (moving) average of +4.8pts – which seems a tad more grounded. However, given that R’s are much more fired up to turn out than D’s. When you factor in likely voter turnout, if the election were held today, it would be worse than the RCP average shows (something I’ve also been asserting). I think the recent prediction is probably a high-side analysis (ie, I think it’s reasonable, but stretching the slightly high side. The final numbers are unlikely to be much higher than this prediction). I think if it were held today, Senate would likely be +8 R.

Sabato commented that things can change and highlighted a few things that could sway things one way or the other. If the R’s have any brains, they won’t do anything significant. This is their election wave to ride – not to create. The current news – and more important, the upcoming economic news in my opinion – are likely to deteriorate. Since I watch real estate from the ground, having a double dip economy is something I’ve predicted since the announcement of the Stimulus Package. I see it not as “possible” or “likely” – more as a nearly foregone consequence of living on debt. It’s a question of timing at this point. The bets aren’t about will we have a double dip. The bets are trying to call how soon. That’s a 2012 issue in my opinion. For now, I see things deteriorating (not improving or even maintaining) from where they are, although probably not radically in the next 60 days. See the most recent unemployment/jobless numbers showing a slow negative trend.

Sabato’s projections are closer to what I see as likely on election day. I saw his previous projections as a tad conservative (which they were, by his own admission today). I’m comfortable in the +7-8 zone more than +6 or +9 at this point (today). I doubt it will get significantly better for R’s from +9; the pain could decrease quite a bit for D’s from here — but I don’t foresee that happening significantly. However, since I see things worsening, while I see +9 as a high-side today, it’s quite possible +9 will be “likely” in 60 days.

Still 60 days for change one way or the other.

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From → Politco

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