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2016 Primary Predictions: Democrats

February 28, 2016

720x405-demsI like to bet money on elections.  So I can’t afford to be emotional about who I want to win – I only care about who will win.  

Despite only being ahead of Sanders by only 5% in the national polling, Clinton has the Democratic nomination locked.

Ignore the national polls.  They are fun for the national media to create suspense and sell ads. The reality of the system is, nominations are decided by delegates.

Democrats have a surprisingly undemocratic process for choosing their nominee by using a huge number of “super delegates.”  These are party power players who can vote for whomever they choose – regardless of how their states’ vote.

This is a big deal.  Clinton has managed to secure 96% of these declared super delegates, 435 to 20! To put this in perspective, for the hoopla surrounding the 3 states that have voted so far, Clinton has only won a total of 52 delegates. But she already has an extra 435 super delegates in her pocket.

How high is this super delegate hurdle?  Sanders has to win at least 58% of the vote in ALL of the remaining the states  — or it’s over.  Currently polling shows this has no chance of happening.

A sample of the states voting over the next 8 days:

  • Alabama 59% Clinton to 31% Sanders
  • Arkansas 57% Clinton to 29% Sanders
  • Georgia 63% Clinton to 26% Sanders
  • South Carolina 58% Clinton to 31% Sanders
  • Massachusetts 46% Clinton  to 46% Sanders (Even if Sander’s “wins,” maybe he will net 1 extra delegate tops over Clinton – meaningless against 435)
  • Michigan  56% Clinton to 37% Sanders
  • Tennessee 53% Clinton to 30% Sanders
  • Texas 60% Clinton to 34% Sanders
  • Louisiana 60% Clinton to 29% Sanders
  • Vermont 75% Sanders to 25% Clinton (Vermont is Sander’s home state)
  • Virginia 55% Clinton to 35% Sanders
  • Mississippi 60% Clinton to 26% Sanders
  • … and older polling in Colorado, Minnesota, Kansas shows Clinton far ahead.

It’s easy to look at the polls and see Clinton is about to knock it out of the park.

I’ve also looked over at the financial betting markets.  Numerous markets are putting Clinton at 90+% chance of winning the nomination.

The media can make a lot of noise about a “close” the race between Clinton and Sanders.  If one focuses on the super delegates and upcoming calendar of states that Clinton has locked up, it’s easy to see, Clinton has the D nomination.

Side note:  I felt this primary was decided back in 2013 when many viable alternatives to Clinton publicly implied they would sit if she declared.  3 years ago, I wrote an article that predicted that, if she ran, she would win the nomination and later, the presidency.

How Clinton could lose:  Clinton has a <9% chance of losing but but not by a Sanders’ rally, but by an indictment by the FBI and DOJ regarding her email server.  This is a very real issue D’s are ignoring.  There is strong evidence and on-going FBI investigations.  I’ve won $100 betting Clinton wouldn’t be indicted quickly but I won’t bet further.  Not until the FBI and DOJ decide what they’re going to do.  Too much risk.

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From → Politco

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