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The Compelling Case That Republicans Won’t Capture The Presidency Until 2024

April 24, 2013

ImageI predict that Hilary Clinton will run for president in 2016.  If she does, I predict that she will win and, as the incumbent, will be  reelected in 2020.  The odds are very high we will see a Democrat-controlled presidency for the next eleven years.

Here are my reasons:

Hugely Popular:  Hillary Clinton left her position as Secretary of State as the most popular politician in America with an approval rating of 69%!  Getting to a 69% approval rating in politics is almost like spotting a unicorn – and indicates wide support from Democrats, Independents, and many Republicans.

Media Appeal:  She would garner all of the attention of being the historic first—the first woman president in U.S. history. Think of the media attention. And if even a couple of percentage points of women vote for her, that alone could shift the outcome.

Little Internal CompetitionThe slate of likely 2016 Democratic presidential candidates on Intrade.com puts Hillary Clinton as a massive 6:1 favorite over the next closest Democratic candidate.  Others put her odds even higher.  If she chooses to run, many otherwise serious contenders have implied that they will sit the race out.

Unmatched Experience:  In addition to having a domestic and foreign CV with which no current Republican candidate can compete, Clinton also is a highly experienced national campaigner.

Data & Social Media Dominance.  Clinton would inherit Obama’s highly sophisticated, Moneyball-like social media/email program.  It’s truly worth reading about how surgically precise and customized the D messages stacked up compared to the implosion that happened on the R side.

Fundraising.  Democrats’ data-driven approach conferred a nearly 4:1 fundraising advantage. Eighty percent of Obama’s money came from individual donors, and Hilary Clinton will inherit that infrastructure with time to fine-tune it for her campaign.

Ohio:  Clinton will also assume Obama’s critical Ohio infrastructure of 130 “community offices,” giving her a upper hand in taking the state that is an electorate map keystone state for Republicans.  No Republican in history has won the White House without Ohio.

Add it together:  Hilary Clinton is a highly popular media magnet who has incomparable broad experience, dominance in fund-raising and social media, and Ohio.  Quite a contrast to Republicans.

Republicans:  The 2016 Republican hopefuls projected by Intrade.com show an opposite situation. No strong candidate stands out on their landscape. The Republicans face a highly unsettled field. Santorum is socially polarizing, Ryan is a losing VP-level candidate, and the lone minority possibility, Marco Rubio, is an unskilled orator.  Sure, there are other potential options—Chris Christie, for example, could be a contender, but he’s already unpopular with the base.  Although Republicans are not dead in the water, the lack of a clear front runner means that they’ll waste valuable time and precious financial resources destroying each other in the national press and scrambling behind the scenes for minute advantages rather than going head-to-head with the Democratic nominee. (2012, anyone?).

Republicans also have a much weaker voter database (another review) and lack the ability to target individual voters. Furthermore, as Newt Gingrich pointed out, Republicans are still lost in coming to terms with the depths of their disadvantage.

It may sound risky to call it three years in advance; but if Clinton runs, it’s actually a reasonable prediction. Given the advantages listed above—and, just as importantly, the lack of serious disadvantages—it’s easy to imagine a situation in which she carries the momentum straight to the White House. And because incumbents have historically won reelection, if she wins 2016, the 2020 presidential race will likely go to Clinton as well. This scenario means that she would be the Commander in Chief until 2024.  Her political stock couldn’t be higher; and since this is her best window for the next 11 years, odds are very high that she will run.

If I were to make a case against her winning, it would be based on Clinton’s age, the economy, and ObamaCare.  Clinton would be 69 in 2016 and the second oldest president in history.  R’s ran an even older John McCain, but the median age for a US president who wins is 55.  The US presidency ages its office holders quickly and voters might feel concerned.  In the near future, ObamaCare will be touching voters in a personal way and may be less popular and more expensive than Democrats thought.  Additionally, the economy could nosedive into turmoil.  Both are viable possibilities, but they would have to negatively impact Americans to a tremendous extent to turn the tide against Clinton.

When the R’s best hope of winning is that everything goes to hell, you know their odds are looking poor.

2014 Congress.  Comparing the seats at risk with their party’s lead, Republicans are practically guaranteed to hold the House in 2014 with Democrats probably retaining a slight Senate majority.  Intrade.com shows similar projections for the House and Senate.

2016 Congress:  With  seven Republican Senate seats up “in play” in areas that Obama carried and zero Democratic seats in play in states carried by Romney, Democrats are nearly guaranteed to control the Senate in 2016.

Jared’s Prediction:

2014 Presidency:  Obama      2014 Senate:  D  2014 House:  R

2016 Presidency:  Clinton      2016 Senate:  D  2016 House:  __

2018 Presidency:  Clinton      2018 Senate: __  2018 House:  __

2020 Presidency:  Clinton      

2024 Presidency:  Clinton      

The highest odds are the next major opening for Republicans for the Presidency is 2024. The next window for the Republicans for Senate isn’t until 2018.

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