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Best Political Prediction Websites and Twitter Feeds

August 12, 2012

These are my favorite sources for political insight and projecting likely outcomes.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/  This site has slowly become the mecca for data for many others’ analysis. It is considered the gold standard for poll averaging in Generic Congressional VotePresidential Job Approval RatingsSenate Mapping, and House Mapping. It’s also a fairly balanced collection of news from liberal and conservative sources.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ – Blog written by a former baseball stat guru turned political junkie, this website has some of the sharpest, clearest analysis from a numbers-based angle.  This is the only other site I check daily.  Incredibly insightful analysis that is often just a little ahead of everyone else.  If you like numbers, this is heaven.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ This is the guy who writes the crystal ball reports that I’ve been getting for 6+ years. He’s ridiculous at calling election outcomes (regardless of which party wins- he has a long record of predicting).  I highly recommend following his reports (free email subscription). His analysis is some of the cleanest in the nation for data-based predicting. It’s free. It’s like learning about political analysis not from a conservative or liberal- but someone hell bent on predicting the right outcome.

http://www.electionprojection.com/index.php  The guy who writes this is a nobody – a guy on the internet who built his reputation just predicting what he thought would happen and being right. I found him back in 2004 when he started and found his analysis compelling (and it turned out, right). I pay for his “premium content” but it’s not necessary since the free version gives you all the same conclusions. He lets you decide what you want to pay him — it’s hard to argue against giving a guy like that an extra $1-$10 to hear his thought process. You can see his track record for 2004, (almost perfect), 20062008.

http://cookpolitical.com/ – Charlie Cook is probably the best known US political prognostication.  His report is considered the gold standard by which others are measured against.

A comment on Twitter
While the 2000’s were about websites, it’s my opinion that the 2010’s will be about Twitter.  Instead of seeing one long post once a day or maybe once a week, twitter allows you to see the thoughts and data the smartest people in the field think is the most interesting, in real time.  It’s an amazing education.

Recommended Twitter Feed:
https://twitter.com/#!/jaredfielding/politicos – My political twitter feed that includes everyone below and many more
https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight – Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight feed.  Gold.
https://twitter.com/LarrySabato – Crystal Ball’s author
https://twitter.com/POLITICO2012 –
https://twitter.com/pollster

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From → Politco

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