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Election: Senate Race By Race

October 26, 2010
I decided to go back and review each senate race one at a time. R’s are guaranteed +4 pickups. Here’s my projections at this point.

R’s +6 seems a borderline no brainer. +7 seems a reasonable lower threshold and +9 an upper threshold — which fits right within almost all pundits +8 estimates.
Staying R:
KY, Paul (R) +4.3. Given the polls consistency, this is likely stay R.

Switching From D to R:
IL, Kirk (R) +2.8. Given the polls consistency, this is likely to change to R.
PA, Toomey (R) +2.5. I think it will go R.
Unknown:
WV, Currently: D. Manchin (D) +2.3. Probably most interesting race since polls are very different. Rasmussen shows Raese +7, the other two polls show Manchin +6, +10 (both D pollsters). I would favor R on this one.
CO, Currently: D. Buck (R) +1.0. I would favor R on this one.
NV, Currently: D. Angle (R) +0.7. I see Reid saving this, but… an upset is very possible in this worst economy state. I suspect that a state as “uncorrupt” as Nevada will find a way to keep the incumbent in office.
Staying D:
WA, Murray (D) +2.2. Will stay D. A likely replay of 2000 if it’s close.
CA, Boxer (D) +2.5, Given CA propensity to go D, this is likely to stay with Boxer. Florentina lacks Arnold’s swagger needed to get an R elected in the Hollywood state.
A good Pollster article reviewing some of the senate races and a look at all the races and their ratings at electionprojection.
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